The cutting edge

Sorprendente el trabajo de Juan de Dios Tena (Universidad de Concepción, Chile) y David Forrest (University of Salford, Reino Unido) que ha sido aceptado por European Journal of Operational Research.

El artículo se llama "Within-season dismissal of football coaches: Statistical analysis of causes and consequences" y su resumen reza así:

The paper examines the triggers for, and, consequences of, within-season dismissals of managers (head coaches) in the top division of the Spanish Football League during seasons 2002–2003 to 2004–2005. A major reason for directors deciding on dismissal is shown to have been concern that the club in question was in danger of demotion out of the division. This suggests that the clubs hoped to bring about short-term improvement in performance by changing manager. Employing an ordered probit model of match results, we demonstrate that an improvement in results tended to be achieved but only in home matches. The finding vindicates the decisions taken by club directors who dismissed their managers and implies that appeasing fans can have on-the-field benefits. It is consistent with the importance attributed to crowd support in the literature on home advantage in sports.

O sea, que sin entrar en si el planteamiento estadístico tiene o no sentido, que no lo he mirado (la verdad es que de los datos de tres temporadas no se debe de poder concluir gran cosa), los descubrimientos son que se despide a los entrenadores intentando que los resultados mejoren y que despedir al entrenador sólo mejora los resultados en casa, que es donde los socios se reúnen para pitar.

No sé si hacía falta la ciencia para descubrir eso.